The Fourth Turning

Strauss and Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it. In The Fourth Turning, they apply their generational theories to the cycles of history and locate America in the middle of an unraveling period, on the brink of a crisis. How you prepare for this crisis--the Fourth Turning--is intimately connected to the mood and attitude of your particular generation. Are you one of the can-do "GI generation," who triumphed in the last crisis? Do you belong to the mediating "Silent Majority," who enjoyed the 1950s High? Do you fall into the "awakened" Boomer category of the 1970s and 1980s, or are you a Gen-Xer struggling to adapt to our splintering world? Whatever your stage of life, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for America's next rendezvous with destiny.

Strauss and Howe apparently have devoted their lives to the study of history and the development of generations in societies. The book is loaded, and I mean, loaded with historical references, some of which I wasn't familiar with until now. By looking at these events, and more importantly, looking at the people that went along with those events, Strauss and Howe noticed some recurring patterns in generations over the centuries. Apply this pattern to our country, and to our future, they have correctly predicted that we are headed for a "Fourth Turning", a time of great criss and peril.

Normally, I shun books that people claim to have "visions of the future" involved with them. They are frequently erroneous and based on the whims of the author. However, "The Fourth Turning" is different. By basing their theories of the future on past events, they offer support and credence to their thoughts. The effect is both enlightening and chilling, but it is one that we simply cannot ignore.

I found every single page of their book fascinating as a study or recent history and future history. Also, I personally found self-enlightenment in reading about the generation in which I belong, the long lost "Gen X" crowd, or the title they label it, "13th". It explains a lot about the world in which I was raised, and the world we live in today.

One chilling fact: this book was written in 1997, and the authors predicts a calamatous and unimaginable event in the early part of the 2000s that would signify the start of the Fourth Turning. Who can read this book and not think of September 11th?

Don't delay. Read this book. We are entering a winter in our times, and those people prepared with that knowledge certainly will have a more steady base in the fourth turning to come.


Puts History, and the near future in a clear perspective   June 4, 2000
Robert Reed
30 out of 33 found this review helpful

This is one of the most important books about history that was ever written. This introduces an ancient concept of cyclic time, and makes it new again. The sub-title "An American Prophecy" might be a little misleading when you read the book, but that's only because of reader's expectations. Many people are expecting a Nostradamus type prediction of the future piece by piece. That's not what this book is about, and they clearly state it in the book. This book is about the cycles of time, and how they have affected past events, and what they tell us about the future. One reviewer on this website has called this work "New Age Astrology." That reviewer is very closed-minded. He makes prejudical statements about the book, and one wonders if he read the whole thing. This book is FAR from astrology because astrology depends upon blind faith to succeed. This book succeeds not because of blind faith in some New Age religion, but because of its nearly perfect track record. The authors of these books have realized that American society goes through cycles of time. These cycles have been nearly precise, and are subject to anonalies, but this book succeeds because history shows that many of the events in America happen over and over again. Also the events that happened between 1946 and today are shown to have a historical precedence, and this is made clear. The proof is in our history. If you want proof, ask people in society, and consult historical sources, and you will come to the same conclusion. So far, when talking to many people in society, this book has not failed me once. This is proof enough about the authenticity of this book. The same review said that this book disregards all of the scientific, technological, and intellectual advancements. I my analysis of this book the author misses many of these developments because they are unnecessary. The book shows that no matter what comes along, they, too, are subject to the cycles of time, and a historical analysis of technologies such as cars, radios, television, and of social movements such as feminism, civil rights, and new age religions prove this very point. The authors merely say that circular and linear time are equally important, and that they actually help the other. I recommend this book to anyone who cares about the future, and of this nation. The historical events have repeated themselves throughout history, and why should today be any different? We are not more special than the other generations who had to go through the seasons of time. Each time I read the book, it gets better because I get more and more from it, and therefore, am able to fit the theory into actual and historic life. If you doubt this book, go seek info from primary sources, be they your children, friends, peers, parents, grand-parents, or grand-children, and you will see how right this book is. I will reiterate that the point of this book is not predicting the EXACT future, but the RELATIVE future, which will be enough to get us through the Fourth Turning successfully. Anyone who is familiar with Chaos Theory know that predicting the exact future is impossible, because the individual parts in continous flux, but the the relative future can be foretold because the behavior of the whole is predictable. If you use this book correctly and wisely, you will gain an amazing amount of insight about the past generations, the future generations, and your place in ths history of this nation. If you use this piece of work incorrectly, you will not gain from this. Plus knowing that a crisis is coming, and trying to figure out what it will be is much more fun and intriguing than if you already knew exactly the details of the next crisis, don't you think?


Troubling but crucially important   August 12, 2006
William Pinches (Mason, MI USA)
25 out of 27 found this review helpful

Strauss and Howe offer an analysis of the past 500 years of Western civilization, through the lens of generational dynamics. They are repeating (and condensing) some of their prior work in Generations, and putting more emphasis on our present reality. The authors posit that there is a four-generation cycle that has repeated itself time and time again over the past five centuries. Every fourth generation, there is a massive upheaval -- the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II being the most recent examples. They argue that we are due for the next massive crisis by about 2020 to 2025, and that all the signs of disintegration of society we see around us are patterns that have existed in the periods prior to the massive upheavals of the past. I found this book to be a page-turner; I found it incredibly difficult to put down.

If you're a church leader, read this book in conjunction with Mike Regele's book The Death of the Church, which is grounded, in large part, on the work of Strauss and Howe.


Charting my generation into the Crisis   October 17, 2001
Michael McSwain (Chapel Hill, NC)
23 out of 25 found this review helpful

Some people have claimed reading this book is a waste of time and have compared the Strauss and Howe theory to "a very flaky, new-agey" prophecy. But since September 11th, this book has been in a heap of debate over whether it really gives an accurate theory. As a member of the Millennial generation, I have found the book to be the single-most original and insightful commentary on history and society.

Some people think the theory makes false generational characterizations and charge the authors with not providing evidence to make such generalizations. First off, theories are designed to make sense of the world. They are based on historical trends, statistics, and years of intellectual discussion. This theory does not directly dictate how a teenager in Illinois may live her life, but it does provide a much more credible account of things to come in her life than she could have possibly imagined herself.

It is insensitive and politically incorrect to suggest that the events of September 11th were "predictable." I do not think that the theory makes any indication that it was predictable; however, the way people are reacting to those events DOES support the theory. The thing that makes this occasion unique compared to major tragic events of the eighties or nineties is that the mood of the nation has changed. That mood, as the theory suggests, is propelled by the alignment of generations right now. As the generations move closer towards this alignment, more characteristics that Strauss and Howe have established will become more visible, and we will begin to see the impending crisis. What we are seeing right now is that 92% of Americans are in support of war and in support of the Bush administration. Nothing like that would have ever happened during the eighties or nineties.

As far as my generation goes, I'm sure there are trends that have happened that the authors didn't consider or that were unpredictable. But figures such as the media really have made us everything we think we aren't. Even MTV, the network of "individualism," has been our prime influence of conformity in the music scene. Media has, directly or indirectly, encouraged us to be cooperative, dutiful, and optimistic. This form of passive commercialism has been shoved down our throats, and the fact that we don't even notice it demonstrates how conditioned we've become to accept what we are told.

Since 1991, Strauss and Howe have accurately predicted the mood of the nation. Their theory is also supported by 400 years of American history. I would highly suggest this book to anyone, even skeptics, as an invaluable analysis of the American landscape.


The most profound book I have read in a long time   January 28, 2006
Laughter and Death (Santa Margarita, CA United States)
17 out of 18 found this review helpful

I have always believed history was linear, and that we were progressing somehow as a species, until I read this book.

Like many other unenlightened, I saw history in short segments, comparing today to the 50s, or to the 60s, and I saw linearities that I could then extrapolate from.

Since reading The Fourth Turning, I realize how history is cyclical, and where we are now, we have been before, in a sense. When you hearken back to the 50s, and how "good" it was, you don't need to despair, but instead realize that those times will come back. (Personally, the 50s sound awful to me.)

The Fourth Turning has profoundly reshaped my view of the world, history and my place in it. Rather than fighting history as it is being made, I recognize now that the wheel is turning, and I cannot stop it. I realize now, it is wiser to understand where we are going as a society, and to make rational preparations instead.

I recommend any thoughtful person to read this book. You will never think the same. In a way, you will pity those who do not see history as cyclical, as they are fooled at every turn.

You will understand that the current cultural war has happened before. Can you remember, progressives vs. christian teetotallers in the teens and twenties. Can you remember the, uh, abolitionists versus the pro-slavery crowd in the 1840s? The revolutionaries vs. the pro-British in the 1760s. We have been at each others throats again and again. Cyclical, hmmm.